Every edition of the oil shock forecast, preserved as published. The situation evolved; the analysis evolved with it.
Islamabad talks collapse after 21 hours. Trump orders naval blockade of Iranian ports. Scenario probabilities shift to 10/45/45. Every price forecast revised upward $8–15/bbl.
A 39-day war removed up to 9.1 million barrels a day from global markets. The ceasefire bought time. It did not buy supply. Scenario-weighted 12-month forecast with facility-level damage assessment.