Every edition of the oil shock forecast, preserved as published. The situation evolved; the analysis evolved with it.
Brent loses 19% in May — worst month since COVID — on an unsigned 60-day MOU, while Hormuz runs at 5% of normal under Iran's $2M-per-ship toll regime and the SPR drains 60 million barrels. A graded audit of No. 03, the four buffers that killed the spike, and a model rebuilt around the deal. Filed hours after CENTCOM struck Iran.
USS Spruance fires on the Touska — first US naval gunfire since 1988. Iran retaliates with Greek and MSC seizures. Hormuz-for-blockade proposal rejected. Brent $111. Wall Street models paths to $150–$200. SPR corrected from 243M to ~409M bbl.
Islamabad talks collapse after 21 hours. Trump orders naval blockade of Iranian ports. Scenario probabilities shift to 10/45/45. Every price forecast revised upward $8–15/bbl.
A 39-day war removed up to 9.1 million barrels a day from global markets. The ceasefire bought time. It did not buy supply. Scenario-weighted 12-month forecast with facility-level damage assessment.